Is Bubble 2.0 finally here?
Having lived through the first Internet bubble (without, alas, getting rich), I’ve been following all the “Bubble 2.0” talk over the past couple of years with some bemusement. After all, unlike the first bubble, we haven’t seen companies go public and watch their stocks soar to stratospheric heights not justified by their earnings (unless you count Google, that is, but they do actually make money). If this is a bubble, it’s a much more modest one, where a successful entrepreneur can cash out for $35 million, rather than the $350 million he might have made in a Bubble 1.0 IPO. And other exit strategies are even more modest; some companies have even sold themselves via eBay for a mere six figures. However, VMWare’s IPO earlier this week might just put the bounce in Bubble 2.0. The EMC subsidiary, which makes the eponymous virtualization software closed at $51 from a $29 open in its first day of trading, and shot up another 13% to $57 on day two. It’s enough to remind me of the early days of trading in Yahoo and Netscape, when I though those companies were overvalued at about $33 (silly, silly me!). So, is the company worth its current valuation of over $20 billion? Beats me. The company does have revenue—of close to $1 billion a year—which sets it apart from much of the Bubble 1.0 crowd. And the company makes some great software. But its business is threatened at least in part by Microsoft, which has limited virtualization under Vista’s EULA. And it faces a raft of competitors from giants like Citrix to credible players like SWSoft. Regardless, this IPO may well open the floodgates for a raft of new offerings. And maybe this time, I’ll be a little less circumspect about those first-day gains, and put a little of my own cash on the line. Maybe.
